Hurricane Alpha? Experts Expect Additional Storms, May Run Out of Names
2020-08-11
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1This year's Atlantic hurricane season has already broken records.
2But weather experts say it is about to get even worse.
3In the coming months, the scientists expect to see about two times the usual storm activity.
4The United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration changed its seasonal estimates last week.
5It now predicts 19 to 25 named storms, far more than normal.
6The agency estimates that seven to 11 of them will become hurricanes, the most powerful ocean storms.
7The science suggests that three to six of those will become major hurricanes, with winds of at least 178 kilometers an hour.
8That is a few more storms than the agency estimated in May.
9The agency reported an increased chance of an above-average hurricane season from 60 percent to 85 percent.
10"It looks like this season could be one of the more active in the historical record," said NOAA lead forecaster Gerry Bell.
11But, it is unlikely to be beat 2005's 28 named storms.
12The warmer oceans and other environmental conditions of 15 years ago were more favorable to storm formation, Bell said.
13This year's expectation of up to 25 storms is the highest number NOAA has ever predicted.
14Bell said the agency estimated there would be just 21 storms in 2005.
15Colorado State University is a leader in predictive weather science.
16It also has increased its 2020 forecast.
17Scientists there now say they expect 24 named storms, 12 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes.
18An average year, based on records from 1981 to 2010, has 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
19Lead Colorado State forecaster Phil Klotzbach said all the signs of a busy hurricane season are in place right now, including increased storminess in Africa.
20Other signs are warmer waters that fuel storms and reduced high-level winds that kill storms.
21"Everything looks ready to be a pretty huge year," said hurricane researcher Brian McNoldy.
22He is with The University of Miami in Florida.
23McNoldy added it is likely that there will be more storms to name than the 21 registered for the season.
24When additional storms come along, experts use the Greek alphabet to name them.
25In a normal year, about 90 percent of storm activity comes after August 6.
26The height of the season takes place from the middle of August to the middle of October.
27The 2020 season has already seen nine named storms.
28"Nine storms to this date is crazy," Klotzbach said.
29Most of this year's storms so far have been weak, thanks to high-level winds and dry air.
30But Klotzbach said that is about to change.
31Sea surface temperatures in the eastern Atlantic are almost 1 degree Celsius warmer than usual.
32That provides more fuel for storms.
33It also leads to changes in air pressure and winds that make for stronger storms, he said.
34Studies predict that a warmer world means generally stronger and wetter hurricanes.
35But NOAA's Gerry Bell said there are too many complexities to an individual season for NOAA to know if climate change is a cause in active years like 2020.
36Bell said the biggest climate element is a 25-to-40-year natural cycle of busy and weak hurricanes connected to Atlantic ocean and air patterns.
37The current active cycle started in 1995, "and we don't know how long it's going to last," Bell said.
38I'm Caty Weaver.
1This year's Atlantic hurricane season has already broken records. 2But weather experts say it is about to get even worse. In the coming months, the scientists expect to see about two times the usual storm activity. 3The United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration changed its seasonal estimates last week. It now predicts 19 to 25 named storms, far more than normal. The agency estimates that seven to 11 of them will become hurricanes, the most powerful ocean storms. The science suggests that three to six of those will become major hurricanes, with winds of at least 178 kilometers an hour. 4That is a few more storms than the agency estimated in May. The agency reported an increased chance of an above-average hurricane season from 60 percent to 85 percent. 5"It looks like this season could be one of the more active in the historical record," said NOAA lead forecaster Gerry Bell. But, it is unlikely to be beat 2005's 28 named storms. The warmer oceans and other environmental conditions of 15 years ago were more favorable to storm formation, Bell said. 6This year's expectation of up to 25 storms is the highest number NOAA has ever predicted. Bell said the agency estimated there would be just 21 storms in 2005. 7Colorado State University is a leader in predictive weather science. It also has increased its 2020 forecast. Scientists there now say they expect 24 named storms, 12 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes. 8An average year, based on records from 1981 to 2010, has 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes. Lead Colorado State forecaster Phil Klotzbach said all the signs of a busy hurricane season are in place right now, including increased storminess in Africa. Other signs are warmer waters that fuel storms and reduced high-level winds that kill storms. 9"Everything looks ready to be a pretty huge year," said hurricane researcher Brian McNoldy. He is with The University of Miami in Florida. 10McNoldy added it is likely that there will be more storms to name than the 21 registered for the season. When additional storms come along, experts use the Greek alphabet to name them. 11In a normal year, about 90 percent of storm activity comes after August 6. The height of the season takes place from the middle of August to the middle of October. 12The 2020 season has already seen nine named storms. 13"Nine storms to this date is crazy," Klotzbach said. 14Most of this year's storms so far have been weak, thanks to high-level winds and dry air. But Klotzbach said that is about to change. 15Sea surface temperatures in the eastern Atlantic are almost 1 degree Celsius warmer than usual. That provides more fuel for storms. It also leads to changes in air pressure and winds that make for stronger storms, he said. 16Studies predict that a warmer world means generally stronger and wetter hurricanes. But NOAA's Gerry Bell said there are too many complexities to an individual season for NOAA to know if climate change is a cause in active years like 2020. 17Bell said the biggest climate element is a 25-to-40-year natural cycle of busy and weak hurricanes connected to Atlantic ocean and air patterns. The current active cycle started in 1995, "and we don't know how long it's going to last," Bell said. 18I'm Caty Weaver. 19The Associated Press reported this story. Caty Weaver adapted it for Learning English. Ashley Thompson was the editor. 20____________________________________________ 21hurricane - n. an extremely large, powerful, and destructive storm with very strong winds that occurs especially in the western part of the Atlantic Ocean 22pattern - n. something that happens in a regular and repeated way 23cycle - n. a set of events or actions that happen again and again in the same order : a repeating series of events or actions 24crazy - n. wild and uncontrolled 25forecaster - n. a person whose job is to predict (something, such as weather) after looking at the information that is available